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Washington Journal

News/Business. Live morning call-in program with government officials, political leaders, and journalists.

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Egypt 49, Us 41, Washington 30, U.s. 21, United States 20, New York 15, Israel 10, Florida 10, America 7, Robert Rice 6, Texas 6, Fabio Rojas 6, Syria 6, Iran 5, Virginia 5, Baltimore 5, Cbs 4, Steve 4, Rojas 4, San Diego 4,
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  CSPAN    Washington Journal    News/Business. Live morning call-in program with  
   government officials, political leaders, and journalists.  

    August 18, 2013
    7:00 - 10:01am EDT  

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[captioning performed by national captioning institute] >> good morning, president obama returning to the white house later today and beginning a two-day focus on the situation of education in america, a two-day bus trip through new york and eastern pennsylvania and getting daily briefings on the situation in egypt. in that country the streets remain relatively quiet following another day of demonstrations yesterday. the story in "the new york times" explaining how the u.s. and european diplomats were undercut by egypt's military, the death toll this weekend
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exceeding 800. later we're going to focus on what's next for egypt but we want to begin with a peace piece this morning in the baltimore sun. focused why are americans so angry and divided? you can join in on the through our republican, democratic and independent lines. you can send us a tweet at twitter.com/cspanwj or join us facebook at >> the question why are americans so angry and divided? one says --
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>> one of the reasons for that polarization of course is the implementation of the president's health-care law. the president has been on vacation but in his weekly address he did talk about the upcoming deadline as the affordable health care act rolls into place. >> many members in congress are working to inform their constituents about the plan but so a group of republicans confusing people and making empty promise it's saying they will shut down the health care law or if they don't get their way they will shut down the government. they are actually wanting to harm the health care and
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economy in the process and many americans are worried about -- many politicians are worried more about how it will affect their position in the government rather than the people. they think it will be sticking it to me but they really will be sticking it to you. some say if you call their office about the health care law they will refuse to help. your health insurance is not something to play politics with. your health is not to be played politics. in the states where governers and legislatures are working together to implement this law properly, states like new york, colorado and maryland, competition is making insurance affordable so i am going to keep doing everything in my power for make sure this law works as it's supposed to.
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because in the united states of america, health care isn't a privilege. your right, and we're going to keep it that way. >> the president focusing on the implementation of the affordable care act known as obama care over the country and we're taking a look at some of the details of the affordable care act and in the weekly standard bill crystal has this piece. he writes -- delay is preferable to error. he says most of the nation voted to elect so the right course for the moment is delay. we want to focus this morning on the broader issue of why americans are so angry and
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divided. it's the starting point of the discussion from robert rice's column available online in the baltimore sun.com. one other point from his piece he says the end of world war rough the 1970's the population -- the economy doubled in size but the median wage of male workers is now lower than it was in 1980 adjusted for inflation. on the phone from marion, massachusetts, if you agree with that point, explain why and depu disagree, tell us why as well. go ahead, kevin. caller: good morning. i think we're looking around and seeing a speck of job growth. we're looking at our children there's very lack of opportunity for them. there were opportunities for us when we were growing up, but now you've got kids in their 30's graduateing from high
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school and college that there's very little opportunity for them and it makes parents very angry. you know, it's not just because our kids are lazy. it's just, you know, lack of opportunity. i mean, we've shipped a lot of jobs overseas. we've outsourced. also our government is spinning out of control. the future of our next generation is going to pay for it. and that government is ramming this obama care down our throats, and there's just unanticipated costs down the road for customers, for our senior citizens when they have to pay that -- well, now with medicare they have to pay the 20% if they have a major surgery with obama care, i think they are going to increase that, and it could wipe out seniors in their retirement savings.
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so it's just -- there's so many question marks down the road set.this president has where do we begin? >> i'll leave it there. from our twitter page there's this point who says americans are angry because of anti-capitalists like robert rice and barack obama. and the question what makes americans so angry and divided, joining us from jacksonville, florida, good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. a lot of americans are angry because the ideal of democracy is not working for many people, in my case my daughter has been in jail for eight years in a mental institution due to a little law called -- protects anybody from the streets and ake you to a jail forever.
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in my case for example i've done anything i could to get my daughter out of that system. as she is being almost killed in that hospital because she doesn't -- she -- because of color. and a lot of things in this country is not working right for many people. >> why is that? why isn't it working, angie? >> the reason it's not working is the two-tier justice system, the democracy is almost bought and sold in washington. i'm sorry, what are you saying? >> ok. >> the democracy is bought and sold in washington. this is not the idea of democracy that brought me to the united states. i came from another country where there was a dictatorship, i was expecting ideal democracy
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where one person and one vote was -- host: where are you from originally? >> cameroon. >> my daughter was snatched from the street not because she was doing anything wrong simply because she stopped ask directions from a cop that doesn't understand french and she doesn't understand english, and because of that she has been in a mental substitution for eight years. i've done my best, everything i could to get out and she can't get out. from france where she came from and now she can't go back to france. the immigration will not deport her to anywhere. so i don't know what else anybody can do in this country to have the right justice, t take you can't jus anybody from the streets or your house. host: angie from scombrooksville, florida.
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-- from jacksonville, florida. good morning, you're from our independent line. caller: good morning. hired w, people that are by the citizens of the united tates, we don't count the jobs , the real jobs numbers that's more like probably 30% unemployed. why don't we count that? don't we deserve the truth? we just stop counting to a point when their insurance runs out? host: thanks for our call. on our twitter page. it all started when paul ryan started with his makers and takers comments calling that offensive. our handle is twitter.com/cspanwj or join us on facebook at facebook.com/ c-span. and on roll call it's written
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about two senators about the invasions of privacy by u.s. intelligence saying that is just the tip of a larger iceburg. the senators made their statements late last week in response to thursday's "washington post" report outlining violations of privacy rules by the n.s.a. and the "post" published and reported a copy of a top secret internal audit that identified thousands
of incidents in which the n.s.a. ran afoul of collections operations. the two democratic senators ron widen and mark yoo dal, both members of the intelligence committee said in a joint statement there are more dials come, "the executive branch has now confirmed the rules and regulations and court imposed standards for protecting the privacy of americans have been violated thousands of times eeach year" that's just the tip
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of the iceburg. caller? caller: yes. i feel why everybody is so angry is half the country does not want obama care in the first place and obama said in a speech that health care was right. well if it's right then why is -- if it's a right then why is it mandatory? he is trying to sell something when everybody can see the insurance rates are going sky high. even my doctor visits went from $50 a slizz to $85 a visit. hesselling a pig in a poke. >> joining us from alan,texas, democrats line, good morning. caller: good morning. i'm kind of -- i'm a bit frustrated with many of the callers. i believe that we are divided much in due to the fact that
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many of the public or the pollists are being confused with the changing facts that the quickly-changing facts associated with the economies like the impact of the repeal of glass speegal, the tech in a logical transitions and globalization, all of this is happening so quickly and there's been such an emphasis on reading and math and science that a lot of people are being lost with their civics and economics situation, so it's difficult enough to understand what's going on and how laws are written but then when you add things like there's no pure democracy, anybody who drives on a public road is not a socialist if it's a socialist program or uses the fire department but now we have news or profit, prisons for profit. there's no more regulation on medications and fuel because of these repeals, so it's becoming
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more and more difficult for people to understand why we have differences of opinion and some of them are not even valid. some of them are just straw men and then there are valid arguments that can be made but they are getting lost in all of this. >> thank you from alan texas. host: michael has this on our twitter page saying americans want an honest discussion on issues and all they see is mostly political postturing from both sides. we're focusing on a piece by robert rice entitled what makes americans so angry and divided? again, if you agree with that sentiment, tell us why. if you disagree, tell us why as well. fist the latest from egypt from the associate associate say sh from the associated press as we said at the top of the program more than 800 people have died
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n clarks with the military supporters and the former president saying it is the responsibility of the army and interim government and violence they say calls for democracy and fundamental rights cannot be discarded much less washed away in blood. >> this is what the front page has like, the piece that a number of reporters from the "washington post" in cairo near washington reporting on it. egyptian security forces yesterday overruning a cairo mosque in which hundred of supporters of morsi had barricaded themselves for nearly 24 hours. it was unclear by nightfall what had become of the protesters who had been detained after they had been escorted from the scene.
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host: and from reuters, killing nearly 800 people in egypt. the ideas that seem to run counterby a suggestion by the prime minister to resolve the islamic organization, also pointing out the plan is basically trying to deal with the confrontation between the muslim brotherhood and the supporters of president morsi cabinet discussions continue in cairo. and later in the program as we see -- dig deeper into what's happening in egypt. the president return from the martha's vineyard. the question we're asking what makes americans so angry and divided from dallas, texas. caller: well, i think the economy is the biggest issue here. people don't have jobs.
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if they do have jobs they are working two or three of them just to support their families. it started back with regan, his deregulation then clinton and nafta and the undermining of glass speegal which is done as a suggestion of robert, ruben and larry summers whom obama was to bring back into government again, as part of the fed, and i think the economy is a very difficult subject. and neither bush nor obama has had the knowledge or the decisiveness to deal with it. under bush it got worse and worse and then when paulson ame one his bailout crisis soverl, he bailed out big banks. the economy has been attacking the average american citizen
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for the past 20 years, we just didn't notice it until it became really horrific and then of course the wars that have cost us a fortune. that was done -- so many of these things come from theorists within the government from those who think the their ideas will save the world, the financial neocons like summers and ruben and they really are destroying the country i think. host: thank you for the call on the independent line from dallas, texas. yesterday the "post" janet yellen is considered the to the front run tore replace enter nangey as the fed chairman and again that story is available online at the "washington post."com let's go back to this piece by robert rice. he points out income, wealth and power have become more concentrated at the top now than they have been in the past
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90 years and as a result many believe have come to believe the zech is stacked against them. based on the headline from his essay, what makes americans so angry and divided. the president will commemorate the 50th anniversary, the i have a dream speech and his watch and preview of what the president will say. for obama racial progress includes past and future converge and as the story points out, on the steps of the lincoln memorial on august 28 current and former advisors say he will want to impress upon listeners -- host: and a couple of other
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related stories with regard to the civil rights movement and the speech by dr. king, this is the cover story entitled "founding father martin luther king jr. and the architect." from the atlanta journal constitution, gains and setbacks mark the march and cycles of recession hit back harder. the front page of "the atlanta journal-constitution" and from the richard times dispatch bringing dreams to life. again 50 years ago later this month we will have live croverpblg of the 509 nniversary of the march taking place and with president obama we will have live cog. back to your calls. bruce is joining us. republican line, good morning. caller: good morning. when i look at the division
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within the country, i think that -- and i look at myself, i'm 70 years old and a c.p.a. i worked hard in college. the economic system in this country has worked very well for me. i still believe that there are opportunities for people to work hard in college or in a skilled trade and have opportunities available. i think that there's no question but what the opportunities may not be as great as they were several years ago. i think a lot of the blame rests with government. we have a society that is very dependant upon government either in the form of food stamps or rent subsidies and as long as we have that attitude, i think we're headed for problems. i think that the job market
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today highly competitive. i look at my clients. again, people have to work hard and be productive in order to you know, benefit the business and in turn benefit them. so i think we have got an awakening and the government has a real awakening, so thank you. >> bruce, thank you so much for the call. already a look at 2016, first from "the new york times" frank brueny, bush, 2016 is the piece and he writes about the past future republican and the focus is on jeb bush, the first sentence or two from frank's piece.
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host: also a piece inside "new york times" from maureen dowd, why don't clintons ever have enough cash is? she writes. and stays closer it gets to running the world one more time, the more you're bugged by things from the last time around with the clintons, the clinton's needyness and what they are owed in their terms and their assumption that they are entitled to even's money are they about to put the for le sign back on the "for rent" sign back on the lincoln bedroom? that's from maureen dowd.
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next from richmond, virginia the democrats line. caller: good morning. i would like to comment on the question about americans and why they are divided. i honestly feel that the bottom line is because our country is run by all these rich people, people that don't care anything about the poor. they are disrespectful to the current president, and i never have ever heard them say all these sadistic things when mr. bush was in office, the bush administration started this. it seems like people just started going downhill from that administration on and they be left legging the country more divided and it's as divided as i've ever seen. host: one of our viewers stays great divide really began with
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regan saying he polarized the right but only a little. then hard-liners took a scorched position. from "u.s. news & world report" from the latest in san diego and current mayor of san diego, bob, points out the effort to recall the san diego's mayor is getting started in the nation's eighth largest city and the etition to boot him and sexual harassment allegations they are expecting volunteers start gathering signatures right away but at the finish line of the half american at a freedom for fill they are in match. the mayor has resisted many duels resign as well as state and federal officials including former house speaker nancy pelosi who said her fellow democrat should step down and spare san diego the pain and
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expense of a recall election and more than a dozen women have accused mayor milner of sex ral harassment. good morning, welcome to the program. caller: yes. think americans are angry, ricesters piece, it's their wages. they are not making enough money. this is what happens when there's no-go-between between the worker and the company, dare i say union. if it wasn't for -- if it's not -- if it's weren't for the union, people are not dying to get paid the wages, have the health care, have the security. you can't get fired because you wore a weird pair of shoes to work or because you made a weird comment, something like that. you're protected. ok.
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i was in a union. and now i'm on retirement from them. so what's the problem? ok, now on the divided deal, i can't really relate to that comment, because i don't live in that type of deal. i'm a human being. that's just crazy, but may i make a comment on the affordable care act? host: absolutely. caller: ok, you got to laugh, the republicans are all saying now a lot of them are saying and you're reading in the paper and stuff that the affordable care is not very popular. thanks to them. thanks to them for the last five years. i mean, i -- and another thing, some americans, brothers and sisters, if it's so bad they have government health care, why 's -- if it's so bad
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is it ok for them to have it? anyway, thank you. host: thank you for getting up early in california. this morning on espnews makers following "washington journal" at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and 7:00 a.m. for you on the west coast. our guest is michael needen, the c.e.o. of heritage action which is a grassroots organization focusing on a number of issues including the affordable care act and farm bill and immigration, some of the topics we talked about on immigration and talked about the farm bill and its future in the house and senate. here's a portion. >> i think that's probably what's likely to happen. i think the other possibility is that we get an extension. last year we had an extension. ifer three years we have been trying to meet with one to talk about what would a modern
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century farm bill look like? we hope to do that. let's put forth a bill that really shows our values. i'm excited with what jeb hencer ling is doing, the pass act kind of the last bill you would have ever have to pass on fannie and freddie because it winds them down and allows us to show what the -- we would love the opportunity to have a one-year extension on the farm bill and work with the ag committee to update the policy what e 1930's-1940's to the economy really is. >> he is the c.e.o. of heritage ction. and our focus this morning -- we're getting your calls and comments on, this this is from
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. viewer hat used to be sold out -- american capitalists new world capitalists sold out america for -- host: let's go back to just a portion of what robert rice says and again available on the baltimore sun website. he writes -- host: also this will from felix who says our country is really divided now because we have a guider in chief instead of a commander in chief. sending in your comments via journal@c-span.org.
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good morning, thanks for waiting. caller: good morning? host: yes, from the republican line, go ahead. caller: we're divided in this country because of the wage differences. i worked for four companies in my lifetime and now that i'm retired for 46 years i get a pension of $295 a month and then i get social security. if i had been able to save something along the way, which was very small, i wouldn't be able to have what i do today and i noticed that companies are cutting back, and that has happened to me just recently. i did retire but now the company has donna way with 401-ks and this is the company i worked for. and this has happened. happened on my other jobs i worked for and i only worked
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for four companies and when i kept getting laid off, i do have a high school education but there were opportunities when i first started in the work for the in the 1906 and the companies now don't give opportunities to advance and the people at the top are the only ones making the none and the people at the bottom are paying the price for it. host: thank you for the call. this from financial and political figures bring the differences to the front lines stand media uses the differences for ratings. from cincinnati ohio, democrats line, good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i'm a little nervous, so just bear with me, please. the reason we are angry and divided is because for over 30 years the divider in scheef alec. they have written laws and
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given them to our elected congressmen. evidently mostly congress have been bought off by alec for over 30 years, they have controlled our every education. they have controlled the financial institutions and they have controlled our employment and talents economic. that's the reason we are, and if people don't know who alec is. if i understand it correctly 's the american ledge lative council, they are not even elected by anyone. we don't even vote on them or anything but they have got together and elected themselves to control the financial institutes, the education areas and employment and the economics, and they write these laws and get the laws to our congress. congress picks the laws exactly as they are written by alec and
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bring them to the floor and vote on them and that's the reason we are in the condition we are in now. host: judy is next. from sumter, california, go ahead. caller: i believe the situation egan a long time ago when we began a slow creeping erosion of civility in this country that in large part began when our leaders stopped socializing with each other and meeting together outside of the workplace. it made it so much easier to lambaste each other when there's no personal choseness. we need leaders in government ho must make a conscious and concerted effort to reverse this situation and i believe slowly the citizens of this country will come back together. it must come from the top. >> ok. host: thank you for the call. the author of the best-selling book "this town" is featured
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tonight on our "q&a" program, political was the headline in d.c.'s exiled quote. pointed out by one, washington has a penchant for sending them packing. high-tailed it out of town for austin, texas and blue colorado he said i felt like i was becoming part of the problem and had to get away. a look at this town, the new book and how it's playing with some people leaving washington, d.c. the story on at politico.com. good morning. caller: good morning. i'm convinced that all the people that i have heard this morning, they are sensing of truth in each one of them. and the two women that spoke
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efore this last editorial. they certainly had their points right. we have no people that are following the law. coma and cora has been completely forgotten in this country, and medicare is a mess. the judicial system should be videoed. host: you mean the supreme court? caller: and 19 generals in egypt? what in the world is going on? we don't have any reports daily of where our generals that are in command of eeach area are, and what they are doing. we don't save rubber bands as we did in world war two. or foil paper or anything else. anything else and nylon.
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we painted our legs. we knew we were in war. now we have war all over the world where a world war iii and no one is about to say that the congress tore president can control any of the generals they bring him in and ask them questions and say what can we do? well, if the congress has to tell what to do, and the president can't tell what to do, remember mcarthur said to true nba he was going to go back to ba tan. trueman called him home and retired him and said, you go home or you don't collect your general's retirement. and you keep your mouth issue. i am running this country. and that's what he was noted
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for, the buck stops here. host: i'm going to stop you there. thank you for the call. up early from kansas. we welcome more of your calls. about seven or eight minutes left we're asking the question what makes americans so angry and divided? from the piece found in the baltimore sun. on our twitter page, he writes america was just as divided and ngry during vietnam. host: we talk about the assassination of president john f. kennedy, that anniversary coming up november 22, 1963, five decades after president kennedy was fatally shot the washington times reporting this morning thousands of pages of investigative documents remain held out and partially known as intriguing and conspiracy buffs are not the only ones seeking
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it could shed nd ight on what they knew about lee harvey oswalt and turns out hundreds of the classified fascinatingly during government years later have tantalized researchers for years. in the headlines, files also this have been sealed some five decades later, that's a story we found in the washington times. calvin is joining us. democrats line, good morning. >> good morning. and excuse me, my voice knot is not very well. caller: i believe this all started around the time that ronlt regan became president. really started what was called the trickle-down effect. it basically became a drought,
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and he also was a union buster which republicans have continually tried to bust and end any union. they could have and the union is the only way that the working man stands a chance. of having a fair wage. i also believe that george bush and our supreme court expect our supreme court that it is more dangerous than al qaeda. the rulings that they have made are so naive, one that i can think of is the it's the same as businesses the same as individuals and anyone with common sense knows a corporation is not an individual. but it is now. and the idea of it being the supreme court unjustly gave then george bush the presidency, our country is
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divided and we will stay divided until then and when it will be corrected, i do not know but some day the justice has to come out of it. host: hope your voice improvs. om the next year the primary challenge for senator mitch mcconnell and his democratic opponent he is expected to face on led by piece mitch mcconnell pointing out failing to back the push to defund the signature health care law even if that means shutting down government. the supporters on friday with the subject line mcconnell surrenders to read on obama care and senator mitch mcconnell is accused of raising the white flag.
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they say he needs to start with the state-wide media campaign. he now runs the heritage foundation. you can get more details by logging on to washington journal.com and americans, what makes them so angry and divided. let me go back to the beginning portion of what robert rice says in his baltimore sun piece. host: donna has this point on our twitter page. she writes, lead rersal bought and paid for before they even get to day one. fred is joining us from olympia, washington. good morning. caller: thank you for giving me the opportunity to talk here. anyway, a lot of reasons why i think this country is divided.
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i don't know if divided is divided as it seems. the way i was brauppingt up was work hard, be honest. everything is going to work out all right. all these shady deals we got going on all over the place. it just doesn't seem like we're being all that truthful and honest and putting people in jail that -- and i don't know what kind of disclosure papers they sign for leaking information or whatever. so i'm sure that is, you know, there's probably some ramify catheses for them leaking information because they were not sfodse to do that when they work for them people but either you're going to be incarcerated by the government or work for the government and that really muffles your voice you can't say fur employed by them you're just going to keep your head down and work. you can't say this is wrong otherwise you're going to be axed.
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so if you stand up and say something, you're going to get thrown in the slammer. like i said, we're about freedom. and you know, we're supposed to be enjoying the fruits of our earnings or whatever, i'm trying to think of the correct terminology. but they are taking more and more of that money and there ain't nothing left. host: you're the for the call. a quick other political notes, running for the governor in the commonwealth of virginia responded to the op-ed piece critical of his involvement in green tech. he says called the truth about green tech. available inside the a section of the "washington post." and another look at another gubernatorial race in illinois where the current gov is facing a likely democratic primary challenger bill daley who served as the clinton
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dministration -- the piece called the democratic family feud in the illinois governor's race. and joe scarborough has written an op-ed from his article in politico dining conservativism. quotes william f. buckley. he explains why he was a conservative and how it changed in part after the 1964 launch by barry goldwater. he says idealism is fine but as it approaches reality, -- taught william f. buckley the lesson all too well and regan's practicing mattism showed buckley how conservative pollal ticks could be if he were more interested in situation voters. and our question what makes americans so angry and divided saying many americans are low
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achievers yet they have expectation of a grand lifestyle and economic reality is raising its ugly head. thank you for sharing your calls and comments and tweets on this question, again, if you ever interested, robert rice's piece is available online at the baltimore sun.com. we're going to turn our attention to the events in the world including egypt and later on the program we'll take a look at national flood insurance and why it's getting so expense i. joining us later on the program, from the center for strategic & international studies middle east is up next. but first a look at the other sunday morning programs that can be heard on stephane radio, with that nancy calo in the c-span radio studios. >> yes, on today's sunday talk shows the topics will include the violence in egypt. also the n.s.a. and privacy issues and new york's stop and frisk law and the republican
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party, you can hear the rebroadcast on c-span radio beginning with sunday's "feet in press." today's guests include ray kelly and jack reed. at 1:00 p.m. abc this week republican senator and deement congressman and the chairman of the republican national committee. at 2:00 p.m. it's fox news sunday. guests include and paul, and peter king and zeament senator, richard bloomen thol. candy crowley talks with republican senator john mccain and also republican ned walker, former u.s. ambassador to egypt. at 4:00 p.m. it's "face nation" from cbs. host bob sheefert welcomes linda i didn't gram and jackie speir, a congresswoman and
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virginia congressman, robert good lat. the sunday in the case tv talk shows on c-span radio are brought to you as a public service and network from c-span. again the shows begin with nbc's meet the press 1:00 abc's this week and fox news and sunday 3:00 p.m. state of the union and face the nation on cbs. listen to them all on c-span radio in the washington d.c. area, nationwide on xm satellite radio, channel 119 and you can download our free app or listen online to c-span radio.org. >> what's interesting about washington in this age is that once you have that title, even if it's a very, very short title, even if you've been voted out after one term, you can stay in washington and be a former chief of staff. a former congressman, a former chief of staff to congressman
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x or y, and that itself is marketable. you are in the club. and that's a striking departure from the days in which people would come to washington to serve, serve a little bit and then go back to the farm. which is as i guess how the founders had intended it. so there's a new dynamic now a lot of it starts with money and the veil billty for people to do very well here. > mark leeb rich is at 8:00 on c-span's "q&a." >> "washington journal" continues. host: we want to focus on the situation in egypt. jon alterman is joining us the program director at the center for strategic & international studies middle east. thank you for being with us. guest: thank you. host: kristin is arrive on the phone outside of cairo to get the latest on what's been
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happening, thank you for being with us. guest: it's my pleasure. i know this death toll in excess of 800 and you have left cairo to a ditcht part of the country, why? guest: i came out of the area of cairo to report on some of the churches that have been burned and many of them were attacked, burned, torched, completely destroyed. many took place on wednesday and outside of cairo, specifically in upper egypt when angry supporters of the ousted president heard about the stories in cairo. i know this president calling for the disbanding of the muslim brotherhood. can he do that and if so, what would that create within the country? guest: i mean it seems the government can do that and almost do whatever they want that the point. the muslim brotherhood is very
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accustomed to being an illegal underground organization. they spent decades without legal recognition before they were recognized in the last few years, so i think that they could easily go back to that posture and that's probably what we will see them doing. >> front page this morning from the "washington post" considering it's calmer today than yesterday. what changed over the last 24 hours? >> well, yesterday we didn't see the muslim brotherhood with whole marches like on friday. this morning has been calmed by there are protests for 4:00 p.m. this afternoon cairo time, so i suspect we will see violence again afternoon and -- host: for your own personal safety, how safe sit to travel around the country? do you have any personal
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concerns? >> well, the situation has worsened for foreign journalists in the past few days, the government and the military has been whipping up sentiment against journalists, particularly, which is similar to what we saw government do during retchlution in january of 2011. so we're seeing sort of civilian arrests of journalists, mob attacks on journalists so that's worrying and fortunately today i have not encountered any problems but that's become a problem for foreign journalists. countries talking about what's next for the european union and the european council and egypt. what's behind that and how important is that to the military of egypt, if at all? >> well, it doesn't appear from the last few days that the military egypt is that --ed about what western countries
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think and what actions they are going to take. it doesn't appear they are that worried about the u.s. suspending aid or other countries who decided that's what they want to do and i think they think they can ride out those consequences. we did see the foreign minister gave press conference in which he criticized foreign journalists and said it's unacceptable for the u.s. to talk about possibly suspending things and reacting to these kinds of threats, but i don't think that those sort of actions are going to cause the government to change course. >> the cairo correspondent for the "christian science monitor," and stay with us if you could jon alterman wants to jump in with a question or two. guest: kristin, one of the things we have seen report asked there's really not a strong police presence. we've seen some of the church
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burnings because of the area but what are yoo seeing in if a -- as far as the army guest: that's right. i have seen zero police or military presence so far in fay you may and i'm actually in a smallvilleage outside of fay you may where three churches were actually torched, and i have not seen any police. host: you point out this is an area that the muslim brotherhood has a strong hold on to? >> yes. >> and where can they simply because they don't have the man power for. it's a very unsettled situation. i think as we look forward into the future of egypt, how much resentment there will be that
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the groft can't control while it can control things in the major city sincere certainly something to worry about. host: and let's go back to your story online vowing for daily pro tests, how are these being organized in lighted of what we have been been seeing? you're story that's been broadcast on line, my question we seen over the past four or five days? >> guest: well, the muslim brotherhood in places are still able to call demonstrations and get people to come out. you know, i think we have obviously seen a lot of their members killed and some arrested. but they still have the organizational power to crawl and get righter large and
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merous protests, we also there are some that were in doubt and some mounting more questions. host: so as we move ahead to the start of a new week, what are you looking for? guest: you know, i'm looking for really looking to see how all of these actors are going to respond going forward. you know the brotherhood seems to be sort of onboard. there's not a lot of communication between the top leaders and the grassroots. it's unclear. they said they were going to call protests every day but they nclear what more will do. i think all of us are waiting to see what they are going to do. are we continue to see protests or violence every day? that's really going to make
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this a difficult week ahead. host: and finally, where has president morsi been over the last near my two months now >> well, no one knows except for the military. guest: several officials have been allow and we think he is eing held at the anti-military place. host: covering the story for the "christian science reels. " and cairo, egypt's military's opponents. host: and i want to begin with a story from the new york sometimes. 17 phone calls from defense secretary chuck hagel and "how a u.s. push to diffuse egypt ended in failure. " why?
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>> because they said you can either treat or cure the illness and we are going to cure it, and the united states doesn't think that this advances egypt's interests and doesn't solve the problem for the united states for some time now the enduring fear has been that egypt would go to the root of pakistan. that egypt would become radicalized and they would have a long-term insur intelligent the government of pakistan actually reduced the relationship. pakistani officers didn't come to the united states they don't have good ties with the american counterparts. that's been the fear. even so, that may be the direction this relationship is going. i have been getting all kinds of emails from egyptian generals andors i assume are getting emails from egyptian generals and the message they
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are sending is this is going to be a much cooler relationship going forward, get used to it. host: we see the pictures, especially last wednesday and thursday of these bodies and makeshift morgues, and my question is who are these protesters? who are these individuals who put their lives on the line? we saw death toll now excess of 800. zpwoip it's a raj of people, but the muslim brotherhood as a result of the organization tends to be a middle class group that tends to have professionals and people who are in families and rising up. so what u not seeing is the very, very poor. u're not seeing people who elf it's people who live their lives according toal strict internal rules and an internal higher arblingy, and what these people feel is this is the future of the country that's at
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stake. this is exactly what the generals feel, too. that's why i think it's very hard for people who feel they are fighting over the country their grandchildren will live in. to back down. the generals have decided, there's no compromising with them. we have to cure the problem. and the way to cure it is to go through a difficult period and then we will resume razz you womplet you've heard me talk about the accident scene phobia that's coming out. if i have a country which needs tourism, it's hard to encourage tourism try to manage accident cene phobia as a way to manage approximately it's how on the one hand you demonstrate this strength and that you're not taking orders from other people and they are going to be welcoming to people from all over the world to come to ezitcht that ultimately is going to be more attention that
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i know think it will be right now. host: is general c.c. the de facto leader at the moment? >> i think he is lead tling group that is leading egypt and in that group he is clearly the most dominant voice. my understanding of the way the leadership works is there's some degree of consultation, but he is clearly the person who the military officers look and the host: one public statement about the situation in egypt and trying to diffuse some of the myths he says might be perpetrated in that country. here's a portion. >> the united states strongly condemns the steps that have been taken by egypt's interim government and security forces. we deplore violence against
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civilians. we support the universal right essential to human dignity, including the right for peaceful protest. we oppose the pursuit of martial law which has denied those private rights of the citizens. today united states extends its condolences of the families of those that were killed and those that were wounded. given the depths of our partnership with egypt, our to al security interest a democratically civilian elected government. while we want to sustain a relationship with egypt, our traditional cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed in the streets and rights are being rolled back.
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as a result, this morning we notified the egyptian government that we are canceling our biannual joint military exercise which was scheduled for next month and and forward i've asked further steps we may take as necessary with respect to the u.s.-egyptian relationship. host: that was the president last thursday. does it matter? guest: it is hard to be heard over the gale force winds flowing in cairo right now. people feel the takes are huge. whatever side you're on, it's a polarizing situation. i don't think people are looking for a lot of signs from the united states. and if anything, one of the things that we saw in the period right around the huge protest at the end of june was the one thing that all egyptians could agree on, was the u.s. played an
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inappropriately large role in egyptian politics, and the u.s. should butt out. i don't think disagree with things the president said. i wonder if we should be thinking as much about exactly what position we are and what statements we make rather than having the strategic discussion about what the future of our relationship with egypt will be, because the fact is we benefit tremendously from this relationship. there are a huge number of defense things and intelligence things and commercial things. plus the strategic piece of israel that egypt maintains that are important to the united states, and if you have distance in this relationship, what are the implications? i think that has to be the focus rather than a statement. host: let's go back to the "new york times" story, because one of the points that the times makes is this did not come as much of a surprise, especially to senator mccain and graham. they were in cairo on august 6. they reported back to the
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administration that they saw these demonstrations coming that led to this piece this morning, the barrage of diplomacy, phone calls from u.s. officials, which ended in failure. did this surprise you, the level of violence and the number of deaths? guest: um, i was surprised it came so quickly. it felt to me like there were ways to get out of this that would have served both sides' interests better. i think what surprised me, because you always want to think that people see their interests the way you see their interests, and i can't see a prosperous and successful egypt hat is also a repressive and xenophobic egypt. it feels to me like right now egypt is on a course to be more repressive and more xenophobic, and i think that puts the economic and social agenda of the leadership very much in doubt. you know, one of the interesting things about egypt is where you're used to
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thinking about egyptian liberals, and by liberals, i mean liberals in a classic sense, not in an american political science sense, which people should be allowed to do what they want, and the government should play a role, a limited role. what i think we are discovering again is that egypt has secularrists, but the secularrists are not liberal, that egyptian secularrists are conservative. they have an idea about what people should be allowed to do and not to do, and they argue for a stronger role for government rather than a smaller role for government. host: if you just tuned in or if you're listening on c-span radio, heard nationwide on x.m. channel 119, our guests is jon alterman with csis, director of the middle east program. he's also the chair of the study of global security and i want to ask you about the doctor, because he played a key role into modern relations with egypt 35 years ago as one of the architects of the camp david peace accords.
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that anniversary is coming up september 17 of this year. and it led to u.s. aid, both military and financial aid to egypt. let me put the numbers on the screen and give our audience some perspective on how much money we are providing. about $1.3 billion in military assistance and financial assistance, and about $2.7 million in the economy. a similar amount has been requested for 2014. of course, now many people calling for an end to that aid. let me ask you, just go back to the 1978 camp david peace accords. what led to this financial aid to egypt? guest: well, it actually started back with the end of the 1973 war between egypt and israel, and there are those who argue that anwar sadat fought that war with a very specific desire of shifting away from the soviet union, with which egypt had been aligned, shifting towards the united states, and regood evening through the peace negotiations the sinai peninsula, which israel had captured from egypt
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in the 1967 war. as part of that agreement, the united states agreed to replace the aid that egypt was getting from the gulf arab states, which at that point were very, very hostile to israel, and the united states would step up a year billion military assistance, and what we would get is, on the one hand, security for israel, a decline in all the violence that had been roiling the middle east and driving it to wartime because of israeli-egyptian wars, and also reate a change in the cold war with this pivotal state and passage through the canal, which is important to get american troops to the gulf and elsewhere. we would go from having a country hostile to a country friendly to us. host: let me take you back to the north lawn of the white house. this is one of the infamous
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photographs, as president jimmy carter shaking hands with israeli prime minister begin and egyptian leader anwar sadat. how did we get from that point in 1978 to where we are today in egypt? guest: one of the weird things about our aid relationship with egypt is it's been extended automatically for 35 years. and what happened in those 35 years is americans began to feel like they were being taken for granted, and egyptians began to feel like they were taken for granted, because the numbers always stayed the safe. the only question is, what do you get for what you give? the egyptians felt they should be getting more for what they give, and the americans felt they should be getting more for what they give. and rather than creating this really deep bond, what it created was a little bit of a sense of resentment over time, and i think that that helps explain part of this egyptian
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attitude that they're not being requested by the united states, because they felt like they were being given a handout, and they felt like they were entitled to it, regardless of what they did. and for many years, i felt this isn't healthy, and we're seeing the consequences of that unhealthy relationship right now, because they don't really want to hear what the united states has to say. they think that we are naive. they think we fundamentally don't understand the way politics works in the middle east. and they will take care of this. and they think we will have to deal with it. host: share your thoughts and comments on facebook or send us a tweet or give us a phone call. al is joining us from new york, independent line. good morning. caller: good morning. am i on? host: you sure are. caller: ok. you got that delay going. well, the only comment i really have about this is the following -- i'm not old enough
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to remember world war ii, but i was born soon after, but i've studied the history of world war ii. and if i'm not mistaken, wasn't it adolf hitler that said we'll destroy democracy from within? the nazi party was elected legally during the time of the democracy. and to me, it equates to what the muslim brotherhood has done. they have come to power legally under the constitution of egypt , and if i'm not mistaken, weren't the people in tahrir square protesting when the brotherhood and morsi suspended ? lot of rights for minorities whether that was political or religious minorities in egypt. and if i'm not mistaken also, a majority of the egyptian people
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saw that as the first tip of the iceberg that the brotherhood is, in fact, a speck lawyer political gang that has taken over and is going to move the country more towards a secular government as opposed to a democracy. host: we'll get a response. thanks for the call, al. guest: you're right in some degrees, and let me quibble with others. one of the questions that we have is really where does the egyptian public break down, and how would they break depending on what questions is being asked to them. there were not a majority of the egyptian public in tahrir square. the rebel movement claims they got 22 million. nobody has ever really verified how many significant tours there were. it's clearly the brotherhood overreached, and you're absolutely right with that. the brotherhood, having won not
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only the presidential election, but more votes by far than any other party in the parliamentary elections, rather than trying to reach across the aisle, rather than trying to build a coalition, their coalition got narrower and narrower and anyway ower. there are many people in egypt who argued this was not going lead the democracy, it was going to lead to the u.s. construction 20 years ago regarding algeria, one man, one vote, one time. and that there would never be another free election in egypt. that doesn't mean, though, you don't still have a large number of egyptians. my guess would be 30% or so. we continue to feel the brotherhood articulates their vision for the country, they're sympathetic to it, and how you deal in a country of 85 million people with 30% who are disappointed, you're dealing with tens of millions of dollars who feel
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disenfranchised. the question is really what which can you set up allows the people to feel the government has legitimacy and doesn't create a subset of millions of people who feel that they were robbed. that's the great danger in all of this, not not that the military is going to dominate everybody against their will, but how do you deal with probably a minority of the population who feel disenfranchised. that's the big question here. the question is partly about the number of people, partly about the depth of their anger, and how do you have a vibrant society when so many people feel so angry about what's happened? the u.s. proposal, which was done very, very closely with
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the europeans -- in fact, the europeans have been briefing a lot of the deals of this compromise that was struck. that was an effort to move toward a more inclusive government with people who supported the brotherhood who would have a role, but not the dominant role. and instead, we seem to be moving toward a situation where they'll be systematically exclude from the government, and you hold a country together, can you hold a country together that gets a lot of its revenue from tourism if you have people who feel this was stolen from them? host: this is from one of our viewers, what do countries like iran, libya, and syria want to see happen? which side do they sympathize with? ill they arm a side? guest: wow. they're really different positions. iran has been close to the brotherhood and was supporting morsi, and iran's -- and egypt's ability to get closer
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to iran was halted by the fact that norris lamb i can group, color closer to saudi arabia, were very hostile to egypt, getting closer to iran. what you see is support for the brotherhood, support for morsi, concerns about that. the government of syria was really hostile to morsi. one of the things that supposedly got the army to switch was morsi seemed to be supporting people going to fight jihad in syria. there was support for the generals. libya doesn't have much of a government right now. there is so much militia activity with so many different parties, and they've had just a tremendous time here, i don't think there's a libya view. host: and syria? guest: well, syria, bashar supports the generals. host: let's go to jack, joining from us columbia, south carolina. good morning. jack, you with us?
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good morning, go ahead. caller: yeah, what's his name, jon? y'all don't really know what's really going on. these people been fighting for years and years. why you think mubarak was the president for 30 years? because they act like a bunch of children. everybody want to kill each other. everybody want to fight. everybody need to believe in god. why you think god destroyed the world? because history began, modern history began in egypt over that part of the world. host: jack, take your sentiment and frame it in terms of a question. caller: well, these guys just talking. this guy here is just talking about what i think he knows. he don't know. he discuss god, and these people need to grow up and stop killing each other and elect a democratic society, what they want. he keeps saying they've been hurt, they've been -- they been confused. that's their country. get together with somebody with
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some sense, make your own damn government and not depend on the united states, not dependent on everybody else, depend on yourself. host: ok. caller: we can't afford to keep dealing with these kind of idiots, all right? idiots all over the world just wanting to kill babies and blow people up. the hell with them. host: thanks. guest: i used to live in egypt, and there were sometimes some acts of violence. what is striking for those of us who lived in this part of the world is how many people are just like you and me, and how many people want the best for their country, the best for their kids. one of the problems that they have had, i think partly because of their history, and you can argue about what other pieces of this puzzle there are, but people tend to see this all as a winner-take-all situation. that if you win, rather than trying to bring other people in and trying to be more inclusive, the idea is to
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exclude other people. that has complications for us. it has complications for the u.s. role in the world, has implications for how we protect global energy market, how we protect american businesses. there are any number of american interests that are affected by what happens in egypt. i don't think we can control it. i think we have limited influence right now, but we certainly have an interest in egyptians doing just what you said, finding ways to be inclusive, to have legitimate governments where people are not only willing to win, because everybody is always willing to win, but people willing to lose, because they think if they lose now, they might win sometime in the future, and it's that exact idea that there's actually a future for the losers, which i think is the secret for americans -- for american stability and which has been missing in egypt. we can't create it. we can't force it. but it's certainly our desire
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to encourage it. host: in case you're interested -- and i want to get your reaction to some of the reporting from london's "independent," and the website is available to get details and an inside look at what happened inside one of the mosques. let me just share with you a couple of sentences from this piece, available from independent.uk, the interim government initiated a bloody war on political islam. successive massacres have been so astonishingly brutal that no one knows exactly how many people have been killed. even cairo, the city that breathes with a brusseling vivacity, it feels as though it died a death of results. the city center is enveloped in a deathly pall of quiet by nightfall. guest: for anybody who's been to key sandrow has seen the pictures, it doesn't seem real. this is a city which for hundreds and hundreds of years has welcomed people from all
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over the world. the expression that the egyptians have for cairo is cairo is the mother of the world, and to see people hooting each other, to see the won ton violence, to see the number of victims is absolutely chilling every single day. host: its military and its leaders face war crimes. guest: could be or should they? host: well, maybe that's two questions. could they and should they? guest: i think it's unlikely. i think the narrative they're putting forward is they're ighting a terrorist musme. partly the amount of violence is due to their own creation, that when you use violence, you get violence in return sometimes. i can't imagine that they would face war crimes. host: should they? guest: what crimes? it's an awfully strong way to
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go. i think the problem for egypt, the punishment that egypt will suffer will be self-imposed. that is, egypt has relied on very, very close ties with a number of western countries for its economy, for its military equipment, that are interon the part ofable with the armed forces, and they have very sophisticated equipment. as they move away from that, i think egypt becomes more tawdry, egypt becomes more tattered. it's harder to draw in the sort of coca-colas and proctor & gambles that have been invested in egypt, and you can get third-rate firms. you can get lower quality equipment. but the idea of egypt being world-class at a time when it's shutting down the society, i think it's very, very hard to imagine. and you can certainly stanch the decline with money from the gulf, and you can keep the economy afloat, but you can't
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make the economy grow. and i think that's ultimately going to be the problem of egypt. again, the problem is partly, how do you get out of the pakistan problem? how do you get out of the problem of a country which, over decadeser relationship with the united states, a more unpredictable domestic environment? it's hard to thrive that way. host: next caller is john, joining from us quantico, virginia, republican line, with jon alterman of csis. caller: thanks for your insight and your expertise this morning on this issue. i wanted to make a comment about u.s. interests and what it all comes down to, and then probably tie that into a question. u.s. interests for egypt are a free flow of commerce to the suez, maintain the peace agreement with egypt, and he is a third one, more recently, would be ensure that the sinai does not turn into a lawless
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area that would breed international terrorist organizations, etc. if those are our three corps interests, how are those in egypt not being met right now? host: thank you, john, and we'll get a response. guest: right now, they are being met in the immediate term. if nk in the longer term, you're coming from quantico, virginia, of course, the home of the marine corps, we don't wait to get our military she wants through the canal, and quite frankly, we don't have a very difficult problem getting warplanes to fly over egypt. that's the problem in other places. what will the u.s.-egyptian relationship look like in the future, and will we have the same privileged access? when it comes to peace with israel, one thing that people systematically miss in the united states and often systematically miss in israel, the united states plays a huge diplomatic role lubricating egypt's role in the world, and the united -- and israel's role
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in the world, and the united states has played a particularly role lubricating the relationship. if the united states doesn't have as close a relationship with egypt, i think -- well, i don't think that the egyptian government is going to be hostile to israel. there are going to be a lot of skirmishes on the border ark lot of problems with communications, where the u.s. won't have as effective a role to play, and i think that will affect the way israelis see their environment. with sinai, again, if you don't have the cooperation, there are technical things which we have helped the egyptians with, we could help the egyptians with, but i hear the egyptians think we have many more abilities in sinai than we do. but certainly we can be helpful if we have a close relationship with egypt if there isn't that trust. i think the likely blood sinai
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becomes more difficult in the near term. right now, we're ok. think forward to five years. think about how this spins out. think about in egypt, which is turning away from the western powers and is trying to pick up warplanes from brazil and other kinds of things, i think that is a different egypt, it's a different relationship, different security environment in the region. host: since the brotherhood was democratically elected, his point, we should support them by not doing so, we may be missing a chance for lasting peace. we have a call from columbus, ohio, independent line. good morning. caller: good morning, and thank u for allowing me to voice a point here. i think that the irony here is that people who were voted to office, or elected to office, are in jail and are being killed. the military runs into country,
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and killing people with i should say muted responses from the west. i don't think the response we are having from the world right now will have been the same with those who are doing the killing. this is really sending a shock wave to political islam, because this will tell them that, and regardless, if you come through the system, it's being prosecuted. when you send them back to the underground, i think we have created another wave of terrorist people. some of this, you have to look very different about, look at them. they have gone through this for yeerks but now the military right now are being turned to
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jail through the proper process. host: how do you respond to that? guest: well, there are two separate issues to respond to that. i don't think you'd see the response weave seen from the rest of the world had not two things happened. first, morsi's apparently power grab, giving himself unchecked power in november, and then the probably millions who came out on june 30, were there not the sense of public support, and were there not a sense that most of the egyptian public quietly supports the military in this push against the brotherhood. i think the international reaction would be different. there is a sense that the military has some public support to do what it's doing, and i think that encourages people not to be immediately harsh right now. the other pieces, it's very interesting that you mentioned turkey, because in many ways,
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the generals in egypt started looking to the turkish model, just as the turkish model was breaking down. that is, the turkish army overthrew the government in 1961, 1971, 1980, then retreated from power, and they saw themselves as sort of a check on civilian power. just as the generals are being rounded up, i don't know a lot of people in turkey who think that the trials in the military were very fair. more than half of the admirables in the turkish navy are in jail right now, but clearly the civilians got their power over the military, and i think, quite frankly, the egyptian military looks at that , and part behalf drives them to decide what they have to get rid of the brotherhood is looking at the turkish example, where the military was table play this role, but ultimately an islamist political party, in
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some ways similar to the brotherhood, was able to not only take power, but to end the general's ability to intervene in turkish politics. the turkey example is interesting. the two examples are turkey which is a modernizing society, growing economy that has gone through this process of semi- civilian and semi-military rule over decades and has grown and pakistan, a society which had the same sort of mixed and seems to be retreating into itself. that is the choice for egypt. what is the right american policy is a very hard question. our guest is a graduate of the wilson school at princeton university and earned his dartmouth.rom
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us fromjoining massachusetts, on the republican line, good morning. caller: good morning, i was listening intently and i am so glad that you mentioned mr. brzezinski. i have led his late reviewed i have read his latest book and he makes it very plain in the beginning chapters -- he says that the west is by no means finished. the era of western supremacy is salient he makes a very point. what we are seeing in the middle emergingcially is an people, kabul coming to grips with who they are, fighting off colonialism and mr.alterman has been eloquent about why the
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payoff -- the american payoff to the egyptians has not worked very well. wonder what 1.3 billion dollars would do for the state of massachusetts among others? in the end, we have to let these people settle it themselves. the: let's go back to earlier point about u.s. assistance in egypt. problems in egypt do not go away. we have tried for 30 years to deepen and broaden our egyptiant with the government. we cooperate not only on military issues, we cooperate on intelligence, commercial issues. there are a lot of american companies with investments in egypt. of thes this whole issue israeli-egyptian border. the fact is, that has become quite -- a quite secure border
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for israel and what happens if that relationship breaks down? how does it change about how the israelis think about the region? how does that affect the whole geopolitical situation there? i think what we have to look for is what does a reduced relationship look like? i think it would be a healthy relationship. i think it would be a relationship in many ways where the egyptians would feel that they were more in control but there are things that will be harder for us to do as a consequence. as a government and is a country, we have to think about what we can afford not to do anymore and what do we have to insist we still do. the instinct will be that we will insist to do everything the same way. i think we have two right size the aid. the egyptians want to reduce that and the egyptians have to think about what is the relationship you want to have with united states look like? you treat us like
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children and it is paternalistic. ok, what relationship would you like? because the relationship where we give a blank check at the beginning of the year and they do whatever they want does not work and it is certainly not going to work in this environment. host: let's go to bob from north carolina, independent line. caller: thank you, c-span. it is a shame that egypt and syria are countries that go back thousands of years in the history of the bible. we have a new pope in the the churchesch and religions have been been fighting each other for many hundreds of years now in these countries. that some churches have been burned and christians have a racism throughout the region. and hed helped the poor
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was a peaceful man and recognized jesus as a prophet and the religious are all related. the region. i pray for it and i hope the rest of us will keep our good hearts and god bless you and thank you. host: thank you for the call. andme take his comment direct your attention to a story from " the new york times." you can see the protesters in the photograph. how do they get order back in egypt? they try to demonize the brotherhood. they claim the only people who are still out and protesting are terrorists. are on theople who fans to decide they will put their heads down and get through this.
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i think the problem with the is that if there is any group that can sustain protests over a long. of time, despite repression, it it is the brotherhood. they have worked to develop their networks over a long period of time and people are committed and it is their friendship circles. it feels to me like this will be a longer-term standoff and i don't think that is good for egypt or the bilateral relationship or for the united states and the middle east but i fear that is the direction we will go in. host: the standoff, will it lead to a civil war? guest: i don't think it does. one of the things that tends to lead to civil war is when people cannot avoid being identified with one group or another. was,se of who your father you are perceived to be on a site you might as well fight otherwise you will be a victim anyway. that is the kind of tension that
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leads to civil wars. this is basically a political orientation. the book and choose and people can be begrudgingly for one side or another, what you are likely violence, no great sustained visibility but i don't think it will rise to the level of civil war. host: thanks for sharing your perspective with us. this program and all of our programming is available on our website any time at www.c- span.org. our moment we will turn attention to the situation especially for those who live along coastal areas -- the impact of the national flood insurance program. our guess is the vice president of taxpayers for common sense. how much will it cost you and what is the government's role? later, can twitter predict elections? a professor from indiana university has his own theory. [video clip]
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we are back in two moment. tax -- we are back in a moment. ♪ ♪ >> we are standing inside hardscrabble which is a two- story log cabin that grant built for his family in 1856. his wife in her memoirs knows -- lets us know she does not like it one bit. she founded crude and homely. true to her nature, she will make the best of it. as a young married woman, she would want to be mistress of her own home. she thought he could have built something as nice as whitehaven and was perturbed that her father had talked grant into
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building a log structured. julia would have brought minor things. as a privileged child, she would have had fine china, fine furniture that would have been chairs and a- broad table. at this point, she would have five people living in this type -- eating in the dining room. what is important about hardscrabble and even though they do not live in this very long is that this represents their very first home together. -- will gaineatly a great deal of confidence as a wife and mother and it starts in hardscrabble. >> this week, the encore presentation of our original series, " first ladies," looking at the public and private lives of our nation's first ladies. get 9:00s all this we p.m. eastern. we want to welcomesteven as we focus on the
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issue of flood insurance. this is the front page story from " the times picayune" -- many of the homes post-katrina are seeing higher flood insurance rates. wehy? we have been subsidizing rates for a very long time, decades, in fact. last summer, there is legislation that was passed, the bigger waters flood insurance reform bill that started moving properties that previously had been subsidized to risk-based rates. some of these properties are seeing what those rates might be now. host: this has the area just out of new orleans and was reminiscent of the flooding that took place post-katrina. homeowners are paying maybe $700 per year but could see
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insurance rates as high as thousands of dollars. guest: there is a lot of misinformation. fema that administers this has contributed. they have talked about what it could be in certain scenarios. $28,000 premium in perspective which seems ridiculous to me, the maximum value of a home that you can ensure under the flood insurance program is 200 $50,000 plus 100,000 dollars for contents. if you are paying a $28,000 premium, it means you live in that risky of an area that they spent your home to flood every 10 or 15 years. we have to start thinking about whether that is a place where we should be encouraging people or facilitating people to live or whether we should help them mitigate their risk or helping them move out of that area. host: why do we have flood insurance if you also have homeowners insurance? most homeowners
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insurance which is private does not cover floods. wegoes back to 1968 when first created the flood insurance program. the insurance market had a hard time pricing it. it was hard to predict floods and hard to know. you had to do mapping about the topography and geography. the federal government decided that we are tired of always paying these disaster payments after the fact. we want to actually bring in some premium revenue and start the program. then we started subsidizing people to encourage them to buy the insurance and we never took the subsidies off. if you want to buy flood insurance now, it pretty much your only possible sources the federal government. host: we want to get your comments on the issue of flood insurance but let's point out that the flood insurance program began in the late 1960s. courtesy of u.s. news & world report, you can see where the money has been going. fema administers the flood
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program. the program had about $26 billion in losses just last year following superstorm sandy. guest: the $26 billion is the aggregate debt in the treasury. when they don't have enough premium to pay off the claims, they borrow from the federal treasury. even if you go to the one storm from new jersey, if they took in $3.5 billion last year, they had to pay out $6 billion? it is insolvent. that's why we started the reform practice. it is a vicious cycle. we are encouraging both development and people to live in harm's way. in some ways, it is a very bizarre system in the fact that these subsidies actually encourage risky behavior which then we pay out
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for later. there seeing some of properties -- about 20% of the total properties in the program -- there is about 5.5 million number of insured properties around the country -- 20% of those are subsidized. sometimes they pay less than half of what they should actually be paying under a real risk-based system. the phone numbers are on your screen. at can send us an e-mail journal@c-span.org. anytime there is flooding or storm damage along the coast, why build their? guest: that is a legitimate question but i don't think it is the federal government's decision that you can and cannot build there. it is the federal government's decision whether we will encourage it. when we provide flood insurance at subsidized rates, when we provide disaster resistance test
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relief and we pump sand on beaches and build the dunes, we are encouraging people to live in harm's way. i don't think we should be telling people that you cannot live there. certainly not at the federal level, state and local localities do that, but we can make sure we are not encouraging the factnt considering that we are looking at greater sea level rises in the coming decades. it will be even more difficult and even more risky to develop along the coast. spent$26 billion has been in the flood insurance program that does not take into account the story this morning focusing on how much has been spent to protect these areas from future floods. talking tens and tens it of billions of dollars going toward some sort of storm protection. we passed the supplemental earlier this year for superstorm
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sandy and that was more than 50 early in dollars. we increased the borrowing authority, the amount that the flood insurance program can actually borrow from the taxpayer up to almost $30 billion. host: the story from " the wall street journal" -- guest: in that same article, there is a mention of how this will impact the people in the southern end of their parish. that is basically right at the gulf. you're talking a high risk area. what we need to do is people need to bear the measure of the risk. it means one of the signals we can show people that either you need to elevate or mitigate or potentially take a voluntary
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buyout is that it will be very costly to be living in these risky areas. host: melbourne, florida, independent line -- caller: good morning. i would like to start with why do city councils allow the development of land that is on the coast or on a river? you talk about the parishes in new orleans, they are underwater. it is below sea level. that doesn't make sense. can you explain that? guest: i wish i could. reality, it is a challenge and the fact that we have federal programs that then are encouraging subsidizing local development and localities are making unwise decisions about where to actually -- to allow development.
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in the state of florida, actually, they are starting to deny certain subsidies for development through the state that are developed on the wrong side, if you would, of the coastal construction line. there is a little bit of moment but that is something the federal government should be in courage and. the taxpayer should not be on the hook for unwise development at made by localities. host: this is a photograph from" u.s. news" and this is in vermont. result of hurricane sandy, it caused some severe damage to that state. if you don't live in a flood zone and your property is damaged, why would insurance cover it even though flooding was the result? guest: the only way you will get flood coverage and get payments is if you actually retain flood insurance. flooding happens all over the place. people should know what their risk is and where they are.
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flood insurance rate maps where people can see in it is not that expensive to purchase flood insurance if you are in a lower risk area. if you are in 100-year flood plane,, you are required to purchase flood insurance. flooding happens along rivers as much as it happens along coasts. it is an important thing for people to look at is whether they should purchase flood insurance to protect themselves. host: from wisconsin, republican line, good morning. morning, government subsidizing bad housing decisions should not be happening but also we have to look at the environmental impacts. because of the flood mitigation program that the corps of engineers engages in, we are losing much of the mississippi delta. up theseeep putting barriers to keep the channel of
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the river to keep it from going onto croplands and housing developments, you are losing all the silt to create the barrier islands to build up that delta to allow for the land to keep being recharged. this is part of the law of unintended consequences. housingep encouraging development closer and closer to coasts and rivers, you are losing nature's ability to mitigate itself. guest: you are absolutely right. that is one of the issues of how we manage the mississippi river and how it affects louisiana along with natural subsidence and the issues of canals for oil and gas drilling and the of those nature. provided are has withe either to wetlands
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dunes and beaches and as we encroach on that, we are reducing the ability for mother nature to respond and be able to protect us and that increases our flood losses. hurricane result of sandy, more than 30,000 buildings in new york city were in a flood controlled area that is now -- that hasn't now more than doubled in the greater new york city area. guest: geography is geography. part of it is trying to understand better what the risk is. i would say that this is something that people sometimes fail to grasp. just because something was not in a flood zone or was 20 years ago, does not mean that it has not changed in that time frame. is development that
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occurs, sea level rise, because of a variety of different factors, a place that once had been not in the flood zone, may now be. if you have done other mitigation measures, you can actually move out of the flood zone. there is a community in florida that and itself in a risky area. and theerstood this difficult bunch of measures to try to mitigate their risk. now they are saying their flood insurance rates go down. it is more about informing people and letting them make commonsense decisions about about how to deal with his level of risk. ellis - max is joining us from illinois, good morning. caller: i live in florida most of the year. we took the very first flood insurance out that was offered to us when we were down there in florida. the first time it actually was offered, we paid $130.
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in fort myers. the flood insurance has gone up so much, we actually don't have it anymore. ourselves innsider a flood zone. we are in dangers of hurricane but more than anything it is the wind. that insurance is going up. we live in a trailer. it is a nice trailer but it's in one of those parks where you have to be 55 years or older to live there. it is a very nice trailer but it --not worth -- i don't think the wife is paying the insurance premiums -- i think she pays it four times a year on that trailer. i would rather they destroy the trailer. she probably took it for this year but i don't know. is this a welfare
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program for the insurance companies because it is gone up so much? host: you are paying the federal government? correct, i haveusaa has an insurance company i can ask them to get me flood insurance. they can provide it but it is backed by the federal government. the premiums go the federal government, whatever payouts come from the federal government but it is at least administered by the companies and they get a small amount of money to do that but it is a federal program. as far as the cost going up, in some cases, that is the reality. we are not jacking up the rates thisse we are trying to - is not a moneymaker for the taxpayer were $25 billion in the hole and we are only getting $3.5 billion in premiums.
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caller says he would rather the trailer just be destroyed. in that case, those are the things that we need to look at in buying out willing sellers and saying this is a high risk area. why are we encouraging you to live your when you are at risk from a hurricane or other storm? why don't we just purchase that property from willing sellers and move in that direction? one way people understand that risk and are willing to look at mitigation is because they are actually paying the true cost of the risk. host: our guest is a graduate of the u.s. coast guard academy and somebody who has studied coastal areas. how has it changed over the last 10-20 years? guest: we have seen coastal development boom in the 1970s and 1980s. to some extent, it was fueled by flood insurance and other federal subsidies like these reimbursement projects that the corps of engineers does. we have seen accelerated development. new jersey is already developed
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what you take a bungalow and replace it with a home that would look fine in a dc suburb or you replace a bungalow with condominiums so you see more intensive development along the coast. at the same time, you have seen issues of sea level rise which is going to create the potential for more losses and there is the argument that you will have more frequent and stronger storms. house along had a the jersey coast and use of the damage from hurricane sandy, is that damage from a natural disaster or is that damage from a flood? that's always the question. there have been problems with this print after katrina, former senator trent lott, then senator trent lott had a house in coastal mississippi. his house was destroyed and he had a very public fight and went
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to court with his insurance company because, basically, they were arguing that it was the water and not the wind and he was arguing it was the wind and not the water so that is the issue of who was going to pay. it depends on the various areas. when you buy flood insurance, part of it is about storm surge as well as just flooding as in the waters coming up. that is what you are paying for and having that covers. the more costly policy -- if you are in a high activity, high storm surge zone, you will pay a bit more because you're at a much rate -- greater risk. host: we are focusing on flood insurance. rates are set to rise in our guest is stephen ellis with taxpayers for common sense. caller: good morning. i live in port charlotte, florida. i live maybe three miles from the peace river is where
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hurricane charley came. the way they zone this -- i live approximately 50 yards from where they cut the borderline for people who have to have flood insurance and people who don't. that puts me in the flood insurance zone. the insurance does not cover the straight i have to purchase -- i have no choice. this place has never flooded in 25 years. how come they cannot make this a better zoning than what they just a pick and choose of who has to pay? why don't they go through the process and look at the 25 years. it could flood tomorrow.
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the fact that something has not flooded for a while, does not mean it is not at risk of flooding in different scenarios. people often lose perspective. certainly, i agree in the fact that you want to have a smarter flood map. you don't want to have an arbitrary line that goes down the middle of a street that says the people on this side have to buy flood insurance and the people on the other don't. bye of that was stripped out some people who were opposed to flood insurance reforms. that were senators trying to have a smarter program and in their effort to try to remove the requirement, the people who were not in the 100- year floodplain but had read lose a jewel risk -- but had some residual risk had to purchase flood insurance as well. they might be forced to purchase it but at a lower rate.
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that is an issue that gets glossed over. the caller has a good perspective. we were talking about this photograph, the scene in vermont after hurricane sandy. michael at this point on twitter -- a large part of the vermont their failure to manage their rivers and floodplains, many areas built long ago in a floodplain. next call in delaware. caller: good morning, thank you for taking my call. one thing i wanted to add to what some of the other colors are saying is are some of the -- callers are saying, is on some of the forces in infinitive -- incentivize economic development, those that are a state and local levels, those that areopers, those businesses, are also part of the equation here. mentionedler something about a welfare program but perhaps this might
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be a double-edged sword providing corporate welfare. so if you could address that, i would appreciate it. host: thank you, dave. guest: absolutely. has made it safe to develop along the coast in a lot of areas. as the boy to self-insure, purchase private flood insurance in the past, subsidize rates and flood insurance has field development, which does benefit the developers. you can see post sandy that there is new construction going up. there is bigger construction going up as well and some of these areas. that is going to be backed by uncle sam. theainly we are providing subsidies. i would just -- one thing i want to point out is we talk about the $28,000 premiums before. if that really is a problem, if that really exists -- and i would probably argue that it is a handful of properties. i cannot say exactly how many.
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we need to find a solution within the flood insurance program, not burden the taxpayer anymore, not change the rate, but you could do it with fostering tax on surcharge on policyroperties, other and flood insurance programs to find a pool of money that they could be using to help test and help people who have actually issues with their rates, that they can then be able to on a temporary basis deal with the increase in rates. which are being phased in over the next five years. host: john at this point -- only your mortgage lender can force you to buy flood insurance. if i correct? guest: no, actually to have a federally backed mortgage, you -- and you live in the 100 year floodplain, you have to buy flood insurance. there are pinnacle sees -- there are penalties against the lender if they are not making you have a policy. most mortgage lenders, it is -- you have to sure that you have proof of homeowners insurance to
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get a mortgage heard if you allow that to lapse, they can actually basically starts paying for harm -- homeowners insurance for you, to make sure that they are being covered. that is the way it works. another observation from a viewer -- i was taking a class and i with city when it flooded, but none of the pre-road were two buildings were threatens. only the newer areas. jim is running us on the democrats line. good morning. caller: this stuff makes me laugh somewhat. there is a problem called the lure of the sea. that is why so many of you people go to the coastal area. to me, somewhat of the problem -- two problems -- one is an overpopulation problem in this country, but the biggest problem seems to me that the insurance ,usiness is based on disaster they cover areas for insurance companies. it seems to me just like they
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have now changed -- and the health insurance company, you have to cover people with pre- existing illness. if you would take insurance and basically at a certain amount of every insurance policy and every area of the country and have that work like a reinsurance situation and cover all people would make more sense than any other way. insurance companies are getting away with murder -- not murder, but getting away to treat duly -- too cheaply. regardless of whether you live in a flood zone, the midwest, whatever. if your house goes on fire in the midwest or a flood in the east coast, west coast, it would all go -- we will be paying for each other, but we all would be insured. to my way of thinking, that makes the most sense. host: thank you, jim. guest: well, the massive extension of a federal insurance program, and not for my -- and from my perspective, the federal
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insurance has never been a good pricing risk. it is never in anybody's political best interest to raise somebody's premiums. naturally -- and there is concert of -- concerted effort in congress to try to not delay any premium increases. i mean, the caller is talking about whether it is for fires. there is no federal fire insurance. i think there are issues there, and we do a lot of disaster relief, fire suppression, thing from wildfires. there are real issues there. reality, let's first try to get the flood insurance program right and make sure people bearing the cost of the risk. you thought about the lure of the sea, and obviously people -- we are naturally and driven to be closer to the water. whether it is a lake or a stream or the coast. that is something that people who want to live there should be paying for that risk rather than having somebody who does not have that risk that made a different decision actually be
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subsidizing people to live in harm's way. that is what we have right now because every american is paying for that $25 billion or loans that $25 billion to the flood insurance program. this how do you respond to -- why can't we sue the local governments forbade drainage? we pay for it. drainage? we pay for it. guest: that is an interesting question. the better way to deal with this is not to encourage that or not to award the behavior. so the community is building in an unwise area, then we should not be providing flood insurance. to get flood insurance, a community has to opt into the program. the entire community. and then the individuals within the immunity can purchase it. when they do that, they make certain agreements that they are going to zone things a certain way and do certain policies. if they miss and pay --
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misbehave, if you are, you can remove them, put them on probation. i think that also we should look at disasters. as we respond to disasters, we should do that in a slightest guilt. normally we divide about 80 -- we provide about 85% of the cost of rebuilding. we should take that to 50% of the cost. then try to do two things to less vulnerable. having proper zoning standards and things like that. they get closer to that 80% threshold the full funding from the federal government. there are tools that we can use rather than just opening or wallet and just handing cash out. host: our guest is vice president of taxpayers for common sense. who funds your organization? guest: we are funded by individuals and charitable foundations. we don't take any government money. i see that as a confidence interest. and we do not take any corporate money. host: dennis is joining us from cedar rapids, iowa.
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good morning. caller: good morning. he did touch on a perfect peace there. you said taking money out of your wallet. you are exactly right. for the past five years, that is exactly what has been happening. rapids, i was in the flood of 2008. now, since the flood of 2008, i have seen very little or no progress on flood recovery. there is an idea that maybe somebody can throw around. gas, whyipelines for don't we do a pipeline for flood recovery? flood, wef there is a can pump it out, you know, at least reduce it down to a certain level, put it in a
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tanker, or distributed someplace that has wildfires or whatever. it will costyeah, a lot of money to started up, but the end result after about five to 10 years will pay out better than what the new york is going to pay out this year. host: dennis, thank you for the call. guest: it is an interesting thought. the volume of water that you are talking about, to have a major flood like that that occurred on the cymer -- cedar river in 2008 in iowa or the saw in the misery in mississippi over a year ago, to try to capture that amount of water would be an incredibly expensive and probably unsuccessful endeavor. besides the fact that you are looking at the flooding that occurs on the coast, it is not water coming down the river, it is actually ways and when action
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-- wind action that is lashing at the coast. host: jim says you cannot urges flood insurance unless you live in or are located in a flood prone area designated by the flood insurance plan. is that true? guest: anybody can buy flood insurance as long as their community is participating in the flood insurance program. you pay a small motto money, but any community, you have to be in a community that is participating. community that is participating -- anybody can buy that flood insurance pretty to be at the top of the mountain and buy flood insurance. host: james is joining us from new jersey. good morning. caller: good morning. i have a house in long beach inand, migrant parents built 1956. -- mynot have to have grandparents built in 1956. we do not have to have flood insurance.
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now that there is actually a storm that hits, the insurance companies are allowed to raise their rates as of baking is my people have been paying into. it seems more like a ponzi scheme to me. all these people now who have been paying in are going to have to start paying more, and they should have been protected and should not have to pay more money. guest: well, i mean, i would agree with the ponzi scheme, although i would put the taxpayers at the bottom of that to remit. -- that pyramid. people who have purchased their flood insurance and paying their premiums are getting paid out, they are getting their payment for. over time, what has happened is a lot of these properties were not paying what they actually should have been paying. was annot a -- it explicitly subsidized rate. now we are starting to remove those subsidies incrementally. for rentalnow properties, second homes, business properties, robberies
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that have been flooded to the -- properties that have been flooded to the extent that it is more than the value of the property. those people are seeing their rates go up 25% a year so it meets a risk-based rate. if you are a homeowner and you are living in your own home and you have a subsidized rate, and you continue to keep your flood insurance policy, your rates are not going up. there is a huge amount of property that we are not actually raising the rates on. which i would rather have seen. to be honest, if we wanted to have more regrets -- more aggressive reform, we do not want the taxpayers to be a sucker at the end of the scheme, which is what has happened because we are $25 billion in the hole, only taking about $3.5 billion in premium. one of the individuals who opt out of flood insurance, your home is damaged, you go ask for
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a low interest rates, will the government provide assistance, or will they say look, you should have had flood insurance, you will not get anything gecko guest? guest: we are a bighearted country, we see a disaster, we want to help people appeared but we cannot be -- people out. but we cannot be softheaded. they can get a loan from a small business administration. they will get a small amount of disaster aid, about $5,000, but i do not think that if people aren't purchasing their insurance, then we should not be bailing them out of that situation. spot, but iicult think it is something that is very critical because it is not fair to the rest of the country. it's is not fair to the rest of the taxpayers if we are not line and making sure that they are accountable for their own risks. host: phineas from kentucky, democrat line, good morning. caller: good morning. i have a friend in ohio, and he received -- he is 79 years old,
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and he received a notice from his insurance company, it is totally unfair, and people should be aware that this is going on. we called the consumer protection agency, and they said they are now allowed to do this. but now they are basing your rates according to your credit or if you filed bankruptcy, which is supposed to be forgive the debts. now, what are they doing to the people out here? this is wrong in every sense. host: cindy, thank you for the call. let me add her point to the point from susan at this e-mail -- homeowners insurance is to to renew shortly according to the insurance company. an increase premium is due to the large amount of claims from superstorm sandy curtis does this make any sense? flood zoneive in a and did not submit eight lane due to the storm. -- submit a claim due to the storm. guest: homeowners insurance is a
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private contractual deal between a homeowner and the insurance company. we are talking about the federal insurance -- federal spending on a flood insurance program. for the flood insurance rogan, there try to map your level of risk. just because you did not pay a claim today, does not mean that you're going to flooded tomorrow. this secular about individual with their homeowners insurance company, but that may be a risk. i do know that the private homeowners insurance market paid out somewhere in the vicinity between insurance and reinsurance, which are the companies that insure insurance companies, about $30 billion out of superstorm sandy. host: what is congress' role? guest: unfortunately, congress has been going the wrong way. what we have seen is -- we had the reform bill last summer that was actually starting to move people towards paying fixed
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rates. now you have some of those senators and lawmakers from louisiana that are trying to delay any increase in these rates. and so it is something where we are going to see constant battles to protect the reforms, to protect taxpayers rather than subsidizing and continuing to subsidize people who are paying below market rates for decades in some cases. host: stephen ellis is with taxpayers for common sense, thank you three much for sharing your insights with us. guest: thank you, steve. will turnng up, we our tent into twitter and can social media predict elections? a study was conducted by indiana university. fabio rojas will be joining us, the co-author of the new study, and what we can expect in 2014 and potentially in 2016. first, the a look at the other programs on the other sunday shows, all of which can be heard commercial-free on c-span radio. nancy callow is keeping track of the topics. good morning.
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>> the morning, steve. on today's talkshows, the topics egypt, and ance in fan privacy issues, new york's stop and frisk law, and the state of the republican party. you can hear a rebroadcast of all of these programs on c-span radio beginning at noon eastern with nbc's meet the press. guests today include ray kelly, jack reed, and kelly ayotte. at 1:00 p.m., here are "this week" with bob corker, eliot engel, and rents previous, chairman of the republican national committee. rand paul of conduct he -- of kentucky and peter king of new york. the fit of the union follows at three clock p.m. -- 3:00 p.m.
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at four clock p.m., "they finish -- at 4:00 p.m., "face the nation" from cbs. congressman bob goodlatte and bobby scott. the sunday network tv talk shows basharc-span radio and on c-span radio. again, rebroadcast of the show begins at noon eastern with "meet the press." finally at 4:00 eastern, "face from cbs." you can listen to the mall on cbs radio and the washington, d.c. area. across the country on satellite radio, channel 190. download our free app for your smart phone or listen online at c-spanradio.org.
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>> and the last few years, the political debate is worthless. they will not debate policy, what is the best way to solve the nation's problems, they will not provide evidence. they're going to label us morally deficient human beings unworthy of debate. >> ben shapiro in september's in-depth guest and he will take your almonds for three hours live starting at noon sunday the first. in the months ahead, october 6, civil rights leader congressman john lewis. november 3, from jackie o to tocy reagan, oprah sinatra, your questions for kitty kelley. december 1, feminism critic christina hoff sommers. loevin.ry, mark live on the first sunday every month on c-span2. >> "washington journal"
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continues. host: joining us from bloomington indiana is fabio rojas. at the tweets go, so go the votes. thank you very much for being with us. guest: thank you very much. host: what was the premise behind your study, and what did you learn? well, the premises when a political canada gets buzz or attention, -- candidate gets buzz or attention, people start talking about them whether they like them or not. we decided to test this theory by going to the data that we have an indiana university. they've been collecting tweets, a large circle of tweets since 2010, and we decide to look at every congressional race, we looked at all the tweets that mention a democratic or republican candidate for
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congress from advanced -- district, and it turns out that number, between share, the percentage of tweets that that candidate gets, it strongly correlated with the percentage of the two-party vote on election day. host: let me share with our art and synnex were devoid you wrote andhe "washington post," usa avail online, you say for nearly a century, conventional wisdom has argued that we can only truly know what the public things about an issue if we surveyed a random sample of adults host: can you elaborate? guest: absolutely. what this study shows is that polling is not the only game in town. does not mean that polling organizations or political campaigns are no longer going to have work to do, but rather they're going to move out of the
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business or reduce their business in the traditional polling format, which means that you readily -- randomly call 800 people or thousand people, you try to get their opinion. this is important because right now the environment for polling is very poor, you have response often less.and 10%, in contrast, social media is open, it is huge, you can examine it in runtime. there is going to be a huge shift from traditional polls to working on social media as a source of information about how the candidate is doing. host: what role, if any, did tter play in 2008 from 2012? 2008, twitter was relatively new. it had only been around for about a year or so. it was still the purview of what you would call early adopters, people who like technology, like the latest thing, and a jump on board. in contrast, by 2012, there was
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a change. depending of which study looked at, some people estimate between 5% and 10% of the american population routinely uses twitter to community. that has become very important because twitter is now a way for candidates to reach out to people, for people to talk ongst themselves, by sharing url links and so forth. twitter is a president of a opportunity for candidates to project themselves, and for people to talk amongst themselves about candidates and evaluate what they are saying. host: we are taking your tweets on the subject. you can join us @cspanwj. our guest is a professor at indiana university curtis said he on the role that twitter has played in predicting the outcome of elections third we will get your call sign, than just a moment. let me share with you, professor on a blog this past week, this was written --
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host host: how do you respond to that? rothernberg
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might be surprised to know that i agree with him. we have never disputed that the incumbency is a very strong protector of future election victories. also in our paper when we study the correlation of twee shar, we include in our model incumbency. there is a lot of good political science and political research out there about house and senate races, and our research starts out as they starting place. what our research does is that this is a new form of data that is fairly accurate, accessible anmany people, and provides alternative to polls. this is important especially for critical may not be able to afford a poll, and may be important cases where you cannot wait for a poll. if you have a presidential debate, and you want to know what people think, you can either run a poll over two or three days and find out the answers next week, or you can track it in real time on social media. in other words, i agree with a lot of the basic political
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science that mr. rothernberg however, -- rothenis comments from blog. (202) 585-3880 is our line for democrats. (202) 585-3881 is our line for republicans. sociale of twitter and media in predicting elections. our guess of a professor at indiana university. let me direct your piece, professor rojas, that you write from the "washington post" you touch on that a moment ago, but if you could elaborate. guest: absolutely. let's start with mr. rother , if you looknts
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at the percentage of people who are african-american, that correlates with the democratic vote. if you summary who is an incumbent, that also correlates with the future visit that -- victory. what this is tell you is that there's something about the buzz about a candidate, about how excited people are about the candidate, that is not always captured by these variables. for example, after people start asking us questions. last week we went back through the data, and the tweet share does better than a lot of , racial composition of the district or the percentage of people who are educated. it does not do as well by itself as a incumbency. however, you can get a highly accurate model of house elections if you combine social media data with things like incumbency and the social demographic characteristic of the district. fabio rojas is joining us from the campus in
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bloomington, indiana. he is the author of "from black our two black studies, how a radical social movement came a discipline." this winter for mary -- twitter was so much fun during 2012 during the election. do you think it had an impact, and do you think you could tell the most positive momentum? guest: there are a number of ways you can measure impact. you today how effective is a candidate in getting their message out, and twitter is an ideal format for studying that question. for anou do is you wait announcement or some sort of media events, and then you can see how people talk about it on social media. which is howstion, much does twitter change somebody's vote? for example, if i were to produce more tweets, would that directly change somebody's mind? my personal theory is that the answer is no. there is a lot of political science research that peoples
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political preferences are fairly stable. in other words, what a mitt romney voter changed to obama just because of a 140 character tweet? probably not heard however, the relative number of tweets that somebody is generating in social media, we do an indicator that canada is having. -- candidate is having. host: another person said the problem with twitter is a can be hacked, spans, most are ads. spammed, most are ads. guest: that is true. one thing not present in our tryhington post" pieces we to control for spamming by looking at the number of users who talk about it rather than the number of messages. for example, you might be concerned that on one account might be generating one million tweets for president obama or one million trees for governor
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romney. however, we can start patrolling for that by looking at the number of users. another thing that you can do is you can start sorting the accounts that you are looking at , how many followers they have, never tweets -- the number of tweets they have. we do that, you can get the tweet share does core late with vote share. -- correlate with vote share. host: bobby is joining us. good morning. caller: good morning. different ways to anticipate election outcomes i seem to perhaps have missed it, but i have not heard anybody discussed gerrymandering and how pervasive that is today regardless of any type of method of looking at how elections are going to come out. it seems rather apparent if you look at the last few races and you see the four or five states that are still in play.
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thank you. i would like to hear your thoughts on that. host: thank you, mark. guest: that is a very interesting question, mark. there has been a lot of academic research on how much gerrymandering and the difference. there is one school of thought that says when the party controls the state legislator, they cana party -- draw the line, and they will draw the line in a way that benefits them. in contrast, there are are people who say mary b gerrymandering and size important as you might think. people will vote the way they want to vote. it is harder than you might imagine to soar people accurately into districts, and that on the overall average, does not make much of a difference. with respect to the tweet post eddie, i found that to be a very interesting question because one of the things that we found, is that the tweets matter for election outcome only in the aggregate. we do not have any information about where people are tweeting
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from. so gerrymandering is not going to so much effect how candidates are perceived on twitter. host: host (202) 585-3880 for democrats, (202) 585-3881 for republicans. our guest is fabio rojas from indiana university. his pieces titled "as tweets go -- so go the votes. how social media can help predict an election." eulas on xm channel 119. ortion from his "washington post" essay host: let me put one case in point. a lot of attention on anthony weiner, who is running for mayor
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of new york, much of it negative, but he is getting a lot of twitter traffic. that is right. when you think about some like anthony weiner, it always reminds you that these academic studies that we can duck or about averages and trends -- conduct are about averages or trends. races in over 400 2012, and we find the same patterns. other researchers have found a similar relationship between tweets and votes in other countries such as canada, germany. we're talking about aggregate averages. then you might ask -- why would i be wrong in some cases you go why would be put or shared not be accurate? twitter presents a very good case for the model simply does not hold and we have to make an exception. when i think of cases like the new york mayoral race, i would think of a scandalous thing a disturbance. what i think will happen with mr. weiner in new york is he
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will see an increase of fairly negative social media coverage, then the voters are going to make up their minds, and he is going to return to a known normal. a new normal. social media will reflect that new normal, which is determined by what the voters of new york thing. ken twitter predict elections? that is our topic. --tter question or comment i'm sure that with number of audiences, the tweets and hits play a big role in influencing, so what about that? if younger people are more prone to using twitter than older americans, or is that not the case? guest: it is true that social media is affected by who you are. example, that older people are not quite as fast in adopting new forms of social media as younger people are. we know that they do not use it with the same intensity as younger people. it is true that younger people are on social media more than older people.
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i would have to say in the time that is not automatically mean that a young person using twitter is overwhelmingly influenced by what they see on social media. it is something that i think happens is a young person may have an inclination towards one party or one political idea, and they may search that out. when social media does is it makes it very easy to search that out. i could pick up my cell phone if i'm interested in chris christie, for example, i can #his name, i can search for its very quickly, and that is something that a young person can do very easily. they are already leaning that way, they are already interested in that idea, and now they can learn more. host: a follow-up -- can the tweets predict voting against all ages or just age groups who use twitter the most? guest: that is a really excellent question. brought ups comment the issue of age.
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age is very important. so far, we have not done a lot of research to store people by age. the reason is that when you look a social media data, you have very limited options. you know a little but about the person, they may tell you where they are tweeting from, but you don't have a lot more information. then the other side of that question is that you could then say let's look at the social prediction, and we can look at polls later and then look at how the social media data matched up with what the polls say because with polls you can sort by age groups. example, if you do a large pole like the pew organization, they offer very large polls before and after elections, thousands and thousands of people, you can sort people according to a young group, 18-25, or 65 and older, and then you can see whether twitter would predict one age group better than in other group. i would love to see that. we want to bring into the
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conversation adam sharp, who is head of government and nonprofit for twitter based here in washington, d.c. thank you for being with us. guest: good morning, steve. host: were talking about the twins in -- the trends in twitter from 2008 22012. i will be moving at what we can expect in 2014 and 2016. guest: the biggest difference between the 2000 eight and 20 12 was to see level and size of conversation in the room, if you will. there are more tweets sent every two days today than had ever been sent prior to the 2008 election. professorrhaps -- rojas noted earlier that's 2008 with every early adopter crowd, but by 2012, it had become a mainstream reflection on thing surrounding the campaign. as we look forward to the next election cycle, i think that is where you will see a new dynamic in the sum of these house and
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senate races. when the last congress was sworn in after the 2010 elections the professors have studied, only one third of the house and senate even used twitter when that congress was sworn in. today, every single member of the senate has a twitter presents, over 90% of the u.s. house. the incumbents will also be engaging in driving a conversation on the ground. this, adam sharp, replacing: when it comes to l -- replacing polling when it comes to congressional or gubernatorial races? guest: i don't think so. they just make it a more complete picture. twitter income nation with focus groups and so on. extra pieces of technology give us a more complete picture when trying to craft. host: one of our viewers said
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twitter is not exactly a representative sample. i want to go back to what professor rojas is talking about as younger people gravitate more toward social media, but is twitter becoming more mainstream? or doesn't rely primarily on the under 35 crowd who use it more phenomenally? guest: is becoming a reflection of the daily conversation in our global town square. you know we don't ask you for your age, we don't ask you for other demographic information, but what we do have is correlation to polling, at the professor suggested. laster, a company called topsy that specializes in sweden -- in twitter data and two polling firms created something called a twitter political index where they track these sentiment or the tone of tweets toward president obama and governor romney over the course of the campaign and found that it attracts furry closely to the mainstream polls at that time.
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and so in that same way where you are not able to say that yes , it is this exact percentage of this age or that percentage of oundher age, the result w up being the same as a carefully, statistically organized sample. just the same way as you can sit back and enjoy the "washington journal" without ever calling in with a question, you can use twitter without ever having to tweet. in fact, nearly half of twitter users use it just to consume information. the group of people who are actively tweeting about politics are going to be different than the population as a whole. the same way as in polling, one of the toughest things tomorrow is always who is a likely voter. the fact that someone is tweeting actively about the campaign is a pretty strong signal. host: let me ask you moving ahead, adam sharp, as you look at trends in social media and
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the predominant now of a vine and other ways to put video comments come a not just written comments, what can we expect in 2014, just in the next year and a half? going i think the story forward now with the power of a fine and other tools is access. curtainulling back the and giving people a peek into the daily lives of the candidates, of members of the camp -- of the cabinet. the new epa administrator jackson vying to take people along with her on her first day as a member of the cabinet. you have members of the senate vining experience on air force one. you have showing electronic voting machines, which as you know, steve, cameras are not allowed on the house floor. so house numbers are the only ones who were able to give this very unique perspective to
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people who with a simple click to follow them on vine are able to be along for the ride. host: adam sharp is head of government and nonprofits for what are here in washington, d.c. thank you for being with us. guest: thank you, steve. host: we're focusing on fabio rojas and his piece in the "washington post." joe is joining us from damascus, maryland. go ahead. question,have a professor, about the new voter suppression laws, like the ones that have been enacted in texas and north carolina, and how this will affect the data. i am thinking that people that are unable to or don't have photo ids like the poor and minorities and elderly people who no longer drive, for example, more than likely are not tweeting. i see that as a variable here and just wondering how that impacts this. host: thank you for the call. professor rojas. guest: that is a really
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excellent point. as has been well discussed, a number of states have added new voter id laws. there is something like that in my own state of indiana. affectssproportionally minority, it will affect people who do not have easy access to government documents heard that is ported to determining how you will be able to vote or if you can vote. with respect to this study, the interesting question will be to see how big will that affect me. for example, if that kind of law prevents 1 of the population from a noble to access the voting booth, then the final election may not be that different than it might otherwise be. but if it is able to prevent 5% or 10% of the population, the effect to be large. then you see a little bit of a variation for what the prediction from say the twitter index or the kind of data that we are collecting. that could definitely be a factor that affects how tight the production will be in the
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end. host: let me ask you -- as part of your study, you took a look at i hope -- at ohio's third congressional is triggered who was in the race, what did you learn? district, i'm not recovering the name -- host: mike turner. guest: thank you. he was running as a republican in ohio in the third district. the data was able to get within about two percentage votes in the final vote tally. there are dozens of cases like that in the data, which shows us for a lot of races that the twitter data is getting in the margin of error for polls. that is really encouraging. host: can you take us back to how you conducted the study, how many tweets you looked at, and when you came up with these conclusions? guest: sure. let me tell you a little bit about the origins of the study
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and how we conducted it. this study was conducted by my research started at any and university -- students at indiana university. the department of computer science, they have been collecting a random sample of tweets since the summer of 2010. it is the largest archive of tweets in the world that is available to the public. twitter has all the tweets, but amongst samples or libraries that someone could access, this is the largest one in the world that is available to the public or to other academic researchers. so we got together, we decided to address this question of whether social media does indeed track rogue world events. study this by going to that archive and select a tweets that mention a republican or democratic candidate. we looked at the summer ready for election 2010. there were about half a billion
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tweets. a few hundred thousand of those tweets mentioned either the republican or a democratic end its or some congressional district in the united states. 100,000 or 200,000 tweets and sort them by congressional districts. within each congressional district, you can compute the percentage of tweets that mention either the democratic or republican candidate third -- canada. then you attach that data to each congressional district. for a comedy, we included that data, the percentage of people who are african-american, the percentage of people who have a college degree, the average household income for that district. this is all from the census bureau and the federal election commission, and we attach that data to each district of the boat there.rty what percentage of the republican or democrat get in the end in that election. is you startworks
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with half a billion tweets, you eets ihem by tw mentioned, the need a man that with data from each district, and you look at the final vote tally. professorguest is the of sociology at indiana university. he is joining us live from bloomington. walter is on the phone, st. johns, arizona. good morning, thank you for waiting. caller: good morning third hello, mr. rojas. i had a question there. i heard mention that on the tweets they do not know what location they're coming from. i think it would be very easy to -- you would know if it is going from new york, florida, specifically by the isp tag. you could instantly match up demographically where those tweets are coming from to create a database of locations.
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would that not be correct? guest: that is not quite right here you would think that is correct, and that was my belief about the data before i started working on this. i did believe, like you, that every tweets automatically comes with an indicator of where the tweet is from. it turns out that is not quite the case. and number of things have to happen. first of all, twitter does not release all the data that is attached to each tweet. we do not have the isp numbers for every person who tweets. geographice is the location. if you look at somebody's twitter account that says i am from such and such, mine says bloomington, indiana. phones,le who use smart and a lot of cases that automatically tells you where you they are at, get the coordinates. the problem is not everybody tweets from a smart phone. you don't automatically get the geographical locator that will come with that. also, when people write in with
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therefrom, first they leave a lot of blanks it blank, a lot of people choose not to say where they are from. and other problem is people treat that as a form for making fun, so a lot of people say i am from planet earth, i am from the dance floor, that is my favorite. a lot of people are dancing or claim to be dancing when they talk about their locations. and so forth. so actually coding geographic data from tweets is a lot harder than it may seem. then when it comes to the study that --ics, the gator the data that you get for some cases could be tricky to work with other data. if you are looking between the united states and other countries who would like to make that comparison, it is not necessarily easy. is almostnew york, it certainly new york city in the united states, that is easy to compare with other countries for there are a lot of cases where you just have something, and it is not clear what this or that event. it turned out location geography
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is actually very hard to do. despite all of those problems and the relative lack of information about geography, it turns out that it still correlates very well with how elections fared. i do not have to be in the same town as a political election to know that something is happening there. i wanted to let our audience know, fabio rojas is a professor at indiana university, and his piece is "as the tweets go -- so go the votes." thank you very much for being with us. guest: thank you very much, i appreciate it. host: we are going to take a short record when we come back, we are going to open our phone lines about 10 minutes. share with us your thoughts about some of the stories in the news is we can. if sunday morning, august the 18th. we are back in a moment. -- it is a sunday morning. ♪
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>> we are standing inside hardscrabble, which is a two- story log cabin that to grant all for his family in 1856. julia in her memoirs lets us know that she does not like it one bit. she founded screwed and homely. crude and homely. she will make the best of it. as a young married woman, she wants to be mistress of her own home. she just thought that he could've built something as nice littleehaven and was a perturbed that her father had talked to grant into building a structure. as a privileged child, she would have had fine china, fine furniture that would have been comfortable, chairs and a broad this, because you had at point, she would've had five people eating in the dining room. what is important about hardscrabble for them, and even
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though they do not live in a very long, is that this represents their very first home together. julia will gain a great deal of confidence as a wife and a mother, and it starts here at hardscrabble. week, the encore presentation of our original series, "first ladies -- influence and image," looking at the private and public lives of our nation for the first ladies. this week, julia grant to air on harrison. this week at 9:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> "washington journal" continues. host: in our remaining 10 minutes, we want to open our phone line then share with you some of the headlines. (202) 585-3880, that is our line for democrats. (202) 585-3881 for republicans. you can also send us a tweet @cspanwj. or send us an e-mail. from page of today's "washington in egypt, forces continue
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to sweep of morsi allies. more demonstrations expected later today and throughout the week. next to that story, by the way, is an in-depth story about the future of nasa. nasa's improbable mission, a look at what is next for the state agency. good morning on our independent line. caller: good morning. host: you are on the air, go ahead. caller: to this morning for the first segment that you had, why there is so much anger and division in america, we are not growing up. we are not part of the world. we think of ourselves as just like global issues climate warming and wars around the world. our really reflecting on us.
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dragged to being leadership, which is a position we are in, and everybody expects us to fill that position. but we don't want to do it from that angle of let's help the world. it is from let's keep these little divisions in america going. host: ok, dennis committee record from page of the "new york times," a look at the legacy 12 years after michael bloomberg was mayor of new york and some photographs titled a city reshaped under bloomberg. you can see the before and after in manhattan, queens, and in brooklyn. another debate taking place this wednesday evening, live coverage on c-span beginning at seven eastern time with the 90-minute debate and a one-our previous tardiness is the clock at the candidates for the democratic primary square off. the primary slated for september 10. to theublicans response president for the weekly address in which he talked about islthcare, one person who running for senate and west virginia called on the president
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to take a look at healthcare and call for a new bipartisan approach as republicans looked at ways to define obamacare. here is more with the representative. [video clip] >> company's have said that because of this law, they will have to shift part-time workers -- full-time workers to part- time and lay off others altogether. states have detailed the rate shock consumers will soon experience, but just days ago, came to light that the president gave a business another pass. this time at the behest of insurance companies that say they need more time to comply. you and yours, family are expected to adhere to all of the prescribed mandates as scheduled. where is the fairness in that? the president claims that this law is working the way it is supposed to. but clearly it is not. not when the administration is missing deadlines, issuing waivers, and granting delays head over -- hand over fist. things have become so bad that
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the administration want to rely on the honor system to verify who is eligible for subsidies. senator max baucus was right about this law he helped write. it is a train wreck. the house passed a delay of the individual mandate could not be plainer. yet even though the president has already signed seven bills that repeal or defund part of the flaw, he has threatened to veto this one. thisresident, in light of latest unfair delay, we ask you to reconsider. it is time for your -- to pass and for you to sign the house's bipartisan delay of the individual mandate. let's delay this helped a lot not just for some but for all americans. that would only be fair. that would be government working the way it is supposed to. for now, republicans will continue to work to protect all americans from the president put the health-care law so we can patient-centered
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reforms that actually lower costs and help jobs. host: healthcare would be one of the topics coming up on c-span's .newsmakers" program jessica is joining us from new mexico. open phones, good morning. caller: i'm just curious, you mentioned on the news, they're not talking exactly why they're going against morsi. they are fighting against corruption. they are saying that corporations are running the government and the president obama put him into government, and they don't want them there because he is such a puppet. but he was not the only one doing that. ireland is doing a, australia is doing that, turkey is doing that, they're all fighting corruption. i'm not understanding why they are not talking about that. it is basically controlling the government. host: thank you for the call. associated press reporting from cairo that egyptian military
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officials have raided a number of homes of the muslim rutherford heard all of this -- brotherhood. all of this in advance of a planned mass rally scheduled for 4:00 local time in cairo and many more scheduled for later in the week. peggy is joining us, new castle, indiana. good morning. caller: good morning. i just have a comment to make. i think this is terrible the way they talk about the president. they call him names. everything. they don't even call him president obama. it is obama. even though i am a very strong democrat, i don't -- i do not disrespect the other presidents that were in there. i called them what they were supposed to be. and then you get rush limbaugh and greg garrison, and greg is from indianapolis, and i mean they just say some of the nastiest things about him. i just can't understand why anyone -- anyone -- would
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disrespect a man that is trying to straighten this country out. the way, the president will be on his bus again. thursday and friday, he is traveling to buffalo and new york. we will be covering the president's trip. he returns from martha's vineyard later today after a one-week vacation. we will continue the conversation tomorrow morning on ,"span's "washington journal seven clock a.m. eastern time. among our guest, robert bixby as we look at the nation's deficit. julia appleby will be joining us, we continue our monday series along with kaiser health news on the president's affordable health care act, obamacare, and the implementation of the affordable care act. mirjian we joining androm the "las vegas sun," what is next for the
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controversial site in nevada tomorrow morning on c-span's "washington journal." thank you for joining us on this sunday. hope you enjoyed the rest of your weekend. "newsmakers" is next. have a great weekend. ♪ >> today on c-span, the ceo of" with heritage for american action, michael needham. john mccainlls with a nancy pelosi. ourelcome to "newsmakers" guest is michael needham. the ceo of heritage action for america.
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actually holding people to the